Been trading for about 18 months now and still can’t decide if I’m actually developing skills or just getting lucky with some trades.
Sometimes I nail a perfect setup and think I’m getting the hang of it, other times I blow through my risk management like an idiot.
What’s your take on this?
Started as pure gambling for me, took about 3 years to stop being a casino player.
Data changed everything. I tracked win rates, average profit per trade, which setups actually worked. Real numbers kill emotional decisions.
Risk management destroys most people. I thought I was smart risking 5% per trade. Lost 40% of my account in two weeks.
Now I risk 1% max - way more consistent. Boring but profitable.
You’re probably developing real skills if you can explain why you entered a trade beyond “it felt right.” Lucky streak traders don’t last.
Trading becomes skill when you stop breaking your own rules and treat losses as normal business expenses.
Recognizing when you blow through risk management shows you’re developing awareness. Most gamblers never see their mistakes.
Keep a simple journal of what went wrong on bad trades. You’ll probably find patterns that help you catch yourself before repeating the same mistakes.
Inconsistent results reveal the truth. Real skill means consistent profits over time, not a few lucky trades. Skilled traders have a clear process and understand their edge. They follow strict position sizing and can articulate each trade’s rationale. If you’re exceeding your risk management, you’re still treating this as gambling. Focus on controlling your position sizes first, then develop your strategy.
Skill means making money when you feel like crap.
It’s gambling when you ditch your plan and chase losses. Skills help, but emotions wreck them quick.
Most traders flip between both phases, honestly.
18 months puts you right in that messy middle phase - you know enough to be dangerous but not enough to be consistent.
Recognizing when you’re blowing through risk management is actually a good sign. Most people stay blind to their mistakes for years.
Here’s what flipped it for me around the 2 year mark - I started caring more about protecting my account than making money. Sounds backwards but it works.
When you can sit through 5 losing trades without changing your position size or jumping into revenge trades, that’s when you know you’re building real skills.
The gambling part never fully goes away though. Market throws curveballs that test your discipline constantly.