Hey everyone,
I’ve been reading about seasonal trading patterns and I’m curious if anyone here actually uses them in their forex trading. I know there’s that famous saying “sell in May and go away” for stock markets, but I’m wondering if similar seasonal effects exist in currency markets.
Do certain currency pairs tend to behave differently during specific months or seasons? For example, do commodity currencies like AUD or CAD have seasonal patterns tied to their export cycles? Or maybe the JPY behaves differently during certain times of the year?
I’m also curious about things like:
- Holiday seasons and reduced liquidity
- Year-end flows from institutions
- Tax-related trading patterns
- Economic data release schedules that might create predictable movements
Have any of you incorporated seasonal analysis into your trading strategies? If so, how do you research and identify these patterns? And more importantly, have they been profitable for you?
I’m trying to figure out if this is something worth studying or if it’s just another rabbit hole that might distract from more reliable technical and fundamental analysis.
Thanks for any insights you can share!
Been tracking this for years - here’s what actually works.
JPY gets crazy around March fiscal year-end. Japanese companies bring cash home and these flows can whip USD/JPY around unexpectedly. I’ve caught some solid moves timing this.
EUR dies in August. Half of Europe’s on vacation, volume tanks, and price action gets messy with wider spreads. I cut position sizes that month.
January effect hits forex too. Fresh institutional money flows in and USD pairs often run stronger the first few weeks. Not every year but happens enough to watch.
Christmas week through New Years is dead money. Liquidity vanishes and you get fake breakouts that reverse once real volume returns.
I keep a simple calendar for these periods but never enter trades based purely on seasonality. It’s more like an extra filter. If my setup looks good AND seasonal factors align, I might size up a bit.
Don’t overthink it. Market structure and central bank policy matter way more than what month it is.
I track basic patterns but keep it simple.
Holiday seasons usually mean thin markets and price action that may not follow normal trends.
USD often strengthens near quarter ends as companies convert foreign earnings back to dollars.
I consider seasonal factors as background context rather than trade signals.
AUD moves with grain harvest seasons too. August through October can get choppy.
December JPY works but most seasonal stuff is noise.
Commodity currencies have real seasonal patterns you can track. AUD usually strengthens March to June when China’s construction season drives iron ore demand higher. CAD follows oil inventory cycles and refinery maintenance schedules. Year-end flows are pretty reliable. Institutions rebalance in December and tax moves create predictable fourth quarter USD strength. Don’t build your whole strategy around seasonality though. Use it to filter your existing setups. If your technicals say buy EUR/USD but that pair historically tanks that month, maybe wait for better timing.