Been looking at market patterns and wondering if there’s actually a way to predict these cycles anymore.
With all the central bank interventions and crypto volatility, feels like traditional economic indicators don’t work the same way they used to.
Cycles are tough to predict now too much uncertainty
I’ve tracked major currency pairs through several cycles now - the traditional 7-10 year patterns are dead.
I used to spot boom/bust setups by watching DXY and commodity correlations. Now we get these weird 18-month mini cycles instead.
Only thing that still works? Liquidity flows. When central banks coordinate policy (2020, 2008), that’s your signal for what’s next.
Timing’s impossible though. I just position for direction and let it play out over months. No point trying to nail exact turning points.
Market cycles are still here, just way faster. What took 7-10 years now happens in 2-3 years thanks to instant info and algo trading. I watch three things: credit spreads widening, yield curve inversions, and forex volatility spikes. They still give you 6-12 months warning. Don’t try to time things perfectly - just position for what’s likely. When credit tightens and currencies go crazy, I cut risk and wait for the crash. Then I buy when everyone’s freaking out. Beats trying to call exact tops and bottoms.
Central bank policies totally screw up natural market cycles. This video breaks down how the Fed’s meddling creates fake booms and busts.
You can still spot some patterns, but timing’s a nightmare now.
Stopped trying to predict these years ago just trade the breakouts instead
From a forex angle, currency movements still follow predictable patterns even when stock cycles go haywire.
Dollar strength phases and commodity currency rotations happen regularly. Safe haven flows into JPY and CHF are reliable during uncertainty.
I don’t predict the big picture anymore. I just trade the reactions when carry trades get imbalanced or central bank divergence hits extremes.
Nobody can predict them perfectly, but crypto just adds more noise now. I watch for obvious extremes.